Elections and Electoral Processes to Watch in 2012

Amid concerns about anti-democratic trends worldwide, several key elections will highlight the trajectory of democracy in 2012. Eberhard Laue

Last week’s spirited discussion on democracy at the World Economic Forum in Davos highlighted a growing sense of anxiety regarding the future of democracy and the rise of anti-democratic tendencies. Panelists identified several challenges to democratic progress, including a prolonged economic crisis, the exponential growth of technology, increased disparities in wealth and low levels of confidence in existing models of democratic governance.

Consolidated and emerging democracies juggle a variety of complex issues, from making democracy work for a citizenry besought by economic insecurity to rising levels of violence and ineffectual government institutions. For an organization like IFES, this is the context in which meaningful and durable electoral processes must be realized.

The following list highlights five elections that will play a significant role in shaping the health and trajectory of democracy in the coming year:

1. Yemen: Following years of civil strife, Yemeni citizens will go to the polls on February 21 to elect a successor to longtime President Abdullah Saleh. After stalling for 10 months, in November 2011, President Saleh signed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Agreement, a power transfer deal in exchange for immunity from prosecution. This deal was backed by the GCC, the United Nations Security Council, the United States and the European Union. The GCC Agreement calls for presidential elections to be held within 90 days of its signing.

What to look for: The political parties who signed the GCC Agreement have agreed on a single presidential candidate – Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour al-Hadi. While many stakeholders have valid reservations about a noncompetitive election, the mechanism and two-phased approach offers a pathway to maintain peace and avoid prolonging a low-grade civil war. Within the context of the Arab Spring, the GCC Agreement, however iperfect, may offer a counterpoint to the ongoing civil unrest in Syria and provide a precedent for negotiated transitions elsewhere.

2. Russia: Russia’s presidential election on March 4 marks an important point in the country’s historic post-Soviet transformation that began some 20 years ago, with the collapse of the USSR and subsequent efforts to build democratic institutions. The assertiveness of the post-Soviet generation and nascent, but vocal, Russian civil society indicate a new and emerging relationship between the state and the Russian people.

What to look for: The presidential election presents an opportunity for the generation born after the Soviet period to assert influence on the political process. It appears as if a new Russia, built on the foundation of responsible citizens and an accountable government, is taking shape. We are witnessing those growing pains. The 2012 elections are an exciting time to see a new generation of Russian democrats come together to provide a genuine grassroots-based process.

3. Burma: There is much at stake for the future of Burmese democracy and for Burma’s international relationships in the upcoming April 1 by-elections. After boycotting the 2010 elections because of flawed electoral laws, the National League for Democracy (NLD) decided to reenter Burma’s politics under an amended, but still limiting, framework. Aung San Suu Kyi, NLD leader, released political prisoner and democracy icon, has decided to run for a seat representing Kawhmu, a poor district south of Rangoon.

What to look for: NLD’s participation along with Syu Kyi’s personal involvement in the by-elections is an important opposition endorsement of the new government’s recent and surprising measures to expand democratic space. NLD, under Suu Kyi’s leadership, is gambling that these flickers of progress are heralds of a larger, longer-term process of transition. The government has recently released hundreds of prominent political prisoners, signed cease-fire agreements with ethnic rebels, increased press freedoms and opened a dialogue with Suu Kyi.

The dominance of Burma’s military leadership has been cemented into the parliament’s new structure with military appointees constitutionally holding a quarter of the seats and a charter which requires a 75 percent vote to change. And yet, the April elections remain important for NLD’s reintegration into the country’s politics and their potential to keep domestic and regional pressure on a deeper political reform.

4. Mexico: On July 1, Mexicans go to the polls to elect a new president and representatives to the federal legislature in what promises to be one of the most closely watched elections in the western hemisphere. The Mexican drug war has claimed over 50,000 lives since 2006 due to the high levels of drug-related violence and the influence of organized crime. It is important to the U.S., as Mexico’s main ally in the war on drugs, to ensure that the July elections are transparent, free and credible.

What to look for: Although Mexico has only experienced a full-fledged democracy since 2000, a great number of Mexicans feel it would be better to return to the old rule of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). The significance of the general elections for Mexico’s neighbors is also clear. From an economic and security perspective, Mexico’s continued descent into violence resulting from narcotraffiking will only spread organized crime and damage the economic and trade potential of the entire region.

5. Kenya: The violent events that followed Kenya’s last national elections in 2007 were a disappointment for Kenyans and members of the international community who regarded Kenya as a bastion of stability. In that troubled election, over 10,000 candidates ran for local office and more than 2,000 candidates vied for parliamentary seats and the presidency. The complexity of the political environment and inadequate planning eventually overwhelmed the institutional and operational capacity of the electoral framework. The resulting crisis left over 1,500 people dead, 250,000 people displaced and hindered economic progress obtained between 2003 and 2007.

What to look for: Kenya’s general elections in December will test the country’s continued democratic development and reform processes. The successful passage of a new constitution on August 4, 2010, marked a critical milestone in Kenya’s democratic development. The newly-appointed Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission still faces numerous challenges; including the development of an effective dispute resolution mechanism, implementation of election technology, boundary delimitation and a nationwide voter education campaign.